Italy vs Estonia Soccer Betting Prediction – Friendly Match
Betting Prediction: Handicap: Home win -3.5
The last international break this calendar year will open on Wednesday evening with countless friendly matches. The basic tenor of almost all teams is identical, hardly any team really wants to play the friendlies due to the difficult personnel situation. The parking obligation has been lifted and in many places, teams will appear in a completely new formation. This will also be the case in the friendly between Italy and Estonia.
The host will have to do without countless players against the underdog from Eastern Europe because they have not received clearance. In addition, Roberto Mancini will spare one or the other star. Nevertheless, anything but a clear success against the current number 109 in the FIFA world rankings would be a bitter disappointment. This is also made clear by a look at the betting base odds comparison, as there are odds of just 1.10 between Italy and Estonia for the home win.
Italy – Statistics & current form
The missed participation in the 2018 World Cup represented a new low point for the Italian national soccer team. With the signing of Roberto Mancini in May 2018, however, Italy returned to its old form and has since delivered extremely strong performances.
For over two years without a loss
In total, Italy has completed 24 international matches under the now 55-year-old Mancini, of which Italy only lost one friendly match against France (June 2018) and one Nations League match against Portugal (September 2018). In contrast, there are 15 wins and seven draws, the Squadra Azzurra has been without defeat for two years now and rushes from success to success.
Italy also showed in the friendlies that the team is very focused despite changes. It was only in October that Italy celebrated an impressive 6-0 win at home against Moldova. In view of this, the forecast for a clear home win between Italy and Estonia on Wednesday is also promising.
Who is playing for Italy?
A possible line-up at friendly matches is already a difficult undertaking, but in autumn 2020 it will almost be a Mission Impossible. The fact is that head coach Roberto Mancini – who recently tested positive himself – has to forego all of the AC Florence and AS Roma players in the friendly against Estonia. This means that actors like Gianluca Mancini, Leonardo Spinazzola, Cristiano Biraghi, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Gaetano Castrovilli or Bryan Cristante will not be available. Especially bitter for the Fiorentina players, as they could have appeared in their homeland.
Some debutants will thus get the train and want to draw attention to themselves in the long term so that they can maybe jump on the EM train in 2021. Candidates for this are Moise Kean, Sandro Tonali or Alessandro Bastoni.
The probable lineup of Italy:
Cragno – Criscito, Bastoni, Acerbi, di Lorenzo – Tonali, Barella – Insigne, Gagliardini, Orsolini – Kean
Last matches from Italy:
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 1
10/14 2020 Italy 1 – 1 Netherlands
10/11 2020 Poland 0 – 0 Italy
10/07 2020 Italy 6 – 0 Moldova
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 1
09/07 2020 Netherlands 0 – 1 Italy
09/04 2020 Italy 1 – 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Estonia – Statistics & current form
The long-standing German export Ragnar Klavan was actually the only Estonian player who was also able to assert himself in the European top leagues. Otherwise, little known players from the Baltic country have been active in Western Europe in recent years. This is also the case with head coach Karel Voolaid’s current squad. In total, there are only eight legionnaires in the squad, but they are not involved in any top league.
The only exception is goalkeeping talent Karl Hein, the 18-year-old teenager made the jump from Estonia to Arsenal and plays there in the U23. Certainly, a player to watch out for in the future.
No victory in the Nations League
With the start of the Nations League 2020, Voolaid placed his trust in the youngster. In the four competitive games this autumn, the youngster was between the posts. So far, however, he has been granted a sense of achievement, because Estonia is still waiting for a victory in the third-class Nations League C.
Nevertheless, a small upward trend can be seen, because in the September doubles Estonia conceded defeats against both Georgia and Armenia. In the last two games almost four weeks ago, the Estonians won a point in the home games against North Macedonia (3: 3) and again Armenia (1: 1). However, the draw against the Macedonians was bitter, because after 87 minutes Estonia was still 3-1 ahead. The victory was still gambled away and so Estonia has been waiting for a complete success since a friendly against Gibraltar in March 2019.
No goalscoring in the last five away games
This success at the football dwarf in Gibraltar was also the last away game of the Estonians in which a goal was successful. Since then, Estonia has made five guest appearances abroad and suffered four defeats. Only in the game against Belarus was a goalless draw.
Although the Italians will certainly play in an unfamiliar formation, given the scarce offensive between Italy and Estonia, the tip that both teams will not score is a good option.
The probable lineup of Estonia:
Hein – Pikk, Pürg, Kuusk, Baranov, Teniste – Tunjov, Kait, Miller – Vassiljev – Sappinen
Last matches from Estonia:
UEFA Nations League C Grp. 2
10/14 2020 Estonia 1 – 1 Armenia
10/11 2020 Estonia 3 – 3 North Macedonia
10/07 2020 Estonia 1 – 3 Lithuania
UEFA Nations League C Grp. 2
09/08 2020 Armenia 2 – 0 Estonia
09/05 2020 Estonia 0 – 1 Georgia
Italy vs Estonia – Direct comparison / H2H balance
Six games, six wins – Italy has shown no nakedness in the previous games against the Eastern European underdog and celebrated some clear victories. In five of the six games between Italy and Estonia, the prediction of a handicap win was crowned with success. The last meeting was over nine years ago. In June 2011 Italy prevailed 3-0 in front of their home crowd in the course of qualifying for the European Championship.
Italy vs Estonia Soccer Betting Prediction
David versus Goliath – although the chance of a surprise is higher in a friendly match than in the competitive matches, there are still no signs that would suggest a sensation on Wednesday evening in Tuscany. The Estonians have almost no international experience and are qualitatively like a bad Serie B team. In this regard, between Italy and Estonia, if a forecast is due, the only question that arises is the amount of victory.
Key facts – Italy vs Estonia tips
Lots of failures at the Squadra Azzurra – no Florence and Roma players available
Italy has won all six previous games
Estonia has not won since March 2019 – ten losses in 13 games
The many failures in the Squadra Azzurra camp mean that the team has been completely reformed. Any automatisms will certainly not work and one or the other coordination problem should not come as a surprise. Nevertheless, the significantly higher quality will be noticeable and will sooner or later be reflected in goals. To this end, the tip between Italy and Estonia is alluding to the high handicap of -3.5 with odds of 2.80 with a moderate stake of four units.